Barnaby Joyce
Barnaby Joyce (Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is pushing hard for Australia to finally commit to net-zero emissions by 2050. And while such a target is by now probably inadequate, it’s still met with stiff resistance in the shape of the Nationals, and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce who was returned to the top job ostensibly to further push back on climate change.

It seems only a matter of time before Joyce cuts a deal with Prime Minister Scott Morrison to back net zero. This week Morrison told US President Joe Biden the government would come up with an “Australian plan” in coming weeks. Veteran Nationals MPs such as former leader Michael McCormack and Darren Chester, victims of Joyce’s coup, have tentatively thrown their weight behind net zero this week. A question of if not when. 

But the biggest roadblock is Joyce and the rump of coal-obsessed Queensland Nationals who drove his return to the leadership. In effect, Australia can’t take a largely symbolic step on climate change because of a few politicians representing a few industries in a few regional towns. 

Barnaby’s concessions

Since returning to the leadership, Joyce has cautiously changed his tune on net zero. At first, it was a blanket no. He told the AFR in June: “The likelihood of Joyce getting endorsement from his party room to agree to net zero is zero. That’s where the net-zero lies.”

Then it increasingly became a case of supporting it only if he could “see the menu”. The point is, Barnaby won’t move the Nationals without a fight which means extracting so many favourable concessions for their core constituencies of wealthy farmers and coalminers as to make any commitment even weaker.

Here’s what some of those concessions might look like:

Soil strategy

The May budget contained nearly $200 million in extra funding to implement the national soil strategy. That was flagged in February as a concession that might help very slowly move the Nationals towards net zero because it would give farmers an incentive to reduce emissions.

Payment for farmers

In a similar vein, the Nationals want farmers to be repaid for cutting greenhouse emissions in another ill-defined concession on a net-zero commitment. There’s a widespread view within the party that the agricultural sector will bear the brunt of any positive action on climate change.

Methane

Joyce has long hinted at potentially excluding methane emissions from cattle from a commitment. 

“The problem is that cows and sheep have a tendency to burp and fart large amounts of methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,” Joyce wrote in The Australian earlier this year. 

He claims methane — about 10% of Australia’s emissions — won’t be reduced without a significant reduction in livestock, which would be deeply damaging to the agriculture sector.

Exemption for farmers

At times, the Nats have pushed to exclude agriculture from a net zero target. In February, a number of senior politicians pushed to exclude agriculture from a net zero target altogether. 

Inland rail

Of course, it wouldn’t be the Nats at the negotiating table without something for the miners. At the National Press Club this month, Joyce said a $5 billion extension of inland rail might be his price for a firm net zero commitment.

In a characteristic question time ramble a week earlier, he called inland rail a great carbon abatement project. In reality, the extension will run right into Queensland mining country. It’s all a hugely wasteful extravagance that will serve only to subsidise coal exports and allow them to double.

No wonder it’s so favoured among Nats pushing back on climate action.